Photo: New York Times

The Effects of the NCAA Roster Limits, Part Two: Analyzing Numbers

3/7 CGC Staff

Earlier this week, we took an in-depth look at the numerous effects that the pending NCAA roster limits will have on college golf as a whole, hearing from coaches, a parent, and an athlete about the repercussions the proposal will have on the golf landscape. In this article, we break down the projected roster numbers for the men's teams in the Power 4 conferences, cuts that will need to be made if the NCAA proposals pass, and what that means for specific teams. We will not analyze the women's teams due to the small roster sizes of the majority of the teams. The big question is, will teams release current players or choose not to add class of 2025 signees? Word is that some 'signing day' documents have a clause noting that the agreement can be affected by roster limits. Please note that not all schools have included wording in the agreements that give them the power to release the signee, and we will not comment on documents for any specific school. Just be aware that current agreements may differ from the previous National Letter of Intent, which was binding unless a coaching change occurred. The downside of releasing a 2025 signee in the spring is that the athlete has little time to find another golf program before the fall of 2025, deposits on their University have likely been made, and there is a short window of time to gain admission to a new school, especially one with high academic standards. For those schools that plan on releasing a 2025 athlete, we question why they signed them in the first place. Another conundrum involves current freshmen who haven't made lineups and have had little playing experience in college. Does a coach take a chance on them with a year of development, or do they feel that the players have not developed enough and take a gamble on replacing them with new signees who they think will contribute more. The athletes who were verified in the transfer portal in December included several freshmen. The most simplified way of cutting an athlete may be letting go of an upperclassman who hasn't contributed to lineup for years and hasn't shown the talent to break the roster in the future. However, it will be difficult for a coaching staff to part with this type of athlete because of the relationship and bond they have formed over the years. Overall, there is no easy decision for coaches to make, and we don't envy the position that they have been put in.

The SEC

By a large margin, the SEC conference will be affected by roster cuts the most, currently projected to part ways with twenty-seven athletes. Currently, the SEC is the one conference that is rumored to have set its own roster limit at eight, while it is unclear if other Power 4 conferences will follow suit. At present, only two teams are projected to avoid letting go of any athletes, Georgia and Texas A&M. Texas, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Alabama are scheduled to lose one athlete apiece. All other teams will have difficult decisions about multiple athletes, with Oklahoma, Mississippi State, LSU, and Florida as the most affected teams.

First let's take a look at Oklahoma. Coach Hybl and staff have amassed a very talented roster of nine returnees, already one athlete over the limit before including three 2025 signees. Currently, the Oklahoma lineup is one of the toughest to crack in NCAA golf, and we can think of five athletes who should be locks on the team next year. Using Junior Golf Scoreboard as a reference, their 2025 class includes two top-50 athletes and one signee just outside of the top-100 in their class. While junior rankings are not the sole indicator of talent and potential in college, they are a fair guide to judge how an athlete MAY contribute early in their college career. The Sooners have solid recruits, but none at the top of their class, and have several current highly regarded freshmen that have sniffed some lineup or individual spot time, but likely won't see post-season playing time. The Oklahoma situation is on the top of our list to follow in the off-season, as four cuts will not be easy to make.

Florida's roster is also one worth following, as they already released one verbal commitment last summer before the signing process began. Even without that 2025 athlete, the Gators will be three athletes over the eight person limit next fall with their projected roster. Adding an Iowa standout transfer in January further complicated their roster projections, causing Coach Deacon and staff to release an additional athlete. Their 2025 list includes one of top international athletes, an inconsistent but talented US Junior champion, and a top-30 recruit, all formidable players. All returning

athletes have contributed to at least one lineup, although some have only cracked a lineup only once or twice. However, Florida has a plethora of returning talent and a strong incoming class, and it is difficult to predict who may not find themselves on the Gator team next fall. Mississippi State And LSU are the two other teams with three potential cuts, as LSU has two new signees and Mississippi State has three.

Although Auburn will only have two players over the limit, their roster will be one to watch due to its depth and talent. Along with Oklahoma, Auburn has the most depth in the NCAA, in our opinion. With seven returnees (including one redshirt junior currently completing his 4th year), we consider four of them to be locks to return and one a 'near lock'. This includes Jackson Koivun, who is rumored to want to return to the Tigers even if he earns his PGA Tour card through the accelerated program. Auburn has two top-10 recruits coming in who should challenge for lineups, and another recruit who had early junior success but hasn't played to that level in the last few years. We can suspect who may not have a roster spot next year, but Coach Clinard and company have some difficult decisions to make. Vanderbilt is another team to keep an eye on, with two 2025 recruits coming in who are expected to contribute immediately to lineups next year. The Commodores have two spots to relinquish, with a third 2025 signee that has potential but may need development, and a few athletes with less contributions to tournaments this year.

The Big 12

With a predicted roster limit of nine next fall, Big 12 teams have one additional roster spot to keep than the SEC. As of now, eight of the sixteen conference teams are at or under the limit, with no necessary roster moves to make for the fall.

Next on the 'we have a lot of extra players' list is Oklahoma State, with four roster cuts pending after signing two 2025 athletes. The signing class is led by a late commitment from Henry Guan, originally part of the class of 2026. His commitment was made long after the pending roster limits were introduced, and after an original verbal commitment to an athlete was retracted (or he decommitted, which we don't have confirmation of). The Cowboys have eleven returning players, from which we suspect the cuts will be made. They carry five freshmen on this year's roster, three of whom haven' t seen a lineup or individual spot. The seven players who make up the core of the Cowboys' lineup and individual spots are all returning next year, and their safety from cuts is highly likely. Their second 2025 recruit is a top-50 player, and what Coach Bratton and staff will do remains to be seen.

Teams with numerous roster moves to make are led by the Baylor Bears, who will have to part ways with three athletes for the upcoming season. Baylor returns ten athletes for the 2025-2026 season, also carrying five freshmen on this year's roster. Four of the freshmen have only competed in individual tournaments, and it is rumored that three of them entered the transfer portal in December, so that may solve three of the roster questions for next season. It can be awfully difficult to start college and after one semester, be told that you won't have a spot on the team for your sophomore year, then see two new athletes sign for the next season. If the portal rumors hold true, Coach McGraw will only have one additional spot to make a decision on. The Kansas Jayhawks also have three athletes to cut, with only one 2025 signee. They have mainly used the same athletes in their lineup this year, with four of their lineup mainstays returning next season. That means that the odd men out are difficult to predict from the seven athletes who haven't played much this year, and their lone signee will likely be given the chance to inject new talent into the roster.

Houston is another team to keep a close eye on, as they have nine returning players and three incoming 2025 signees, one of whom is a top-50 ranked player in his class. The other two recruits include one international player with an average WAGR ranking and one player outside the top-200 in his class. Three of the returning players have not competed for the Cougars this year, one begin a redshirt junior.

The ACC

As a whole, the ACC seems to keep their roster numbers lower and fewer teams will not be presented with the task of cutting players for next fall. Of the fifteen teams, only five are projected to be at or under the limit of nine. However, if they decide to follow the SEC and change to a roster limit of eight, that will affect three additional teams. One team that will need to part with the most athletes is SMU, with eight returning golfers and three class of 2025 signees. Of the new signees, one is currently ranked in the top-500 in WAGR; therefore we can expect him to enter the roster. The other two signees include one international player with an average WAGR rank and one American just outside the top-150 in his class. Of the returning players, each player has played in at least one tournament, although three juniors have contributed the least amount in tournament play.

Notre Dame is the only other school that will be faced with letting go of two players. With a young team, The Irish have played the same lineup in each of their tournaments this year, and two of their freshmen have not seen any playing time other than an individual event. Rumor has it that one freshman was in the transfer portal in December. Coach Handrigan and staff have three promising freshmen signees that should challenge the five returnees for the bottom two roster spots; therefore, we may see them all on the Irish roster this fall.

Other teams with one possible roster decision to make are Clemson, Stanford, and Virginia Tech.

The Big Ten

With eighteen teams, one would not expect the Big Ten to have such a small number of players to part with, with the exception of Oregon. While we're at it, let's stop and wonder why Oregon has so many players and have planned to add several more in the fall. If current roster numbers hold true, the Ducks will return twelve athletes and add three new 2025 signees, for a total of fifteen, six over the proposed limit of nine. For a sport that typically takes a maximum of six athletes to a tournament when counting an individual spot, that's a large number of players to begin with. Looking at this season's tournament stats, Coach Martin had used only seven of his current fifteen athletes in tournament play, two of those being seniors. This leaves him with only five players of his returning twelve with playing experience this year. One 2025 recruit is at the edge of the top-50 in his class, one is a top-600 WAGR ranked player, and the third is a top-500 WAGR ranked player. The Oregon coach is not in a enviable position when deciding his roster for next fall.

Only four teams in the Big Ten are set to cut one player. These teams include Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Rutgers. Of the four, Rutgers is the team with the most signees, but is no stranger to roster turnover from year to year.

Where will these players end up?

Come May, we should see the biggest number of golfers in the transfer portal in history, as teams inform their current players that they won't have a spot for the fall. Even more disheartening, there will be class of 2025 signees that have planned to attend a school that will be told that there is no longer a spot for them. Many of these athletes will be forced to take a gap year and a) enter the school they signed with in the fall of 2026, or b) find a new team for the next year. The question is, what does this mean for the class of 2026 athletes? Verbal commitments may be voided or athletes in that class may be asked to take a gap year. Overall, the entire situation is unfavorable for the classes of 2025 and 2026, similar to the affect that the Covid-19 pandemic had on the classes of 2021-2023 due to the extra 'Covid year' given to athletes. With the class of 2027 eligible for active recruiting in June, they may see coaches unsure of the number of spots available for their class for the first few months of recruiting until the dust settles from the settlement.

Looking at the roster statistics that we provided, several lower ranked teams in the Big 12, ACC, and Big Ten will benefit from their lower roster numbers and have the flexibility to pick up talented players from the transfer portal. The #8 or #9 player on a top SEC could slot into a lower tanked team's #5 slot easily and will get more playing time and opportunities for growth. Teams such Iowa, USC, Washington, NC State, Louisville, Kansas State, Colorado, and UCF could all gain some talent that will contribute to their lineups, or pick up a 2025 athlete with some value and upside. Mid-major programs will also hit the transfer portal, although possibly less teams that we originally expected. Looking at an initial list of colleges that have opted-in to revenue sharing and roster limits in the preliminary phase, there are more non-Power 4 conference teams opting in than we expected. Though there will be a trickle down affect of strong players transferring to lower ranked teams, the number may not be as high as projected.